European inflation trends in June

Eurostat released updated inflation numbers for Euro area countries last week. While data for some data is available through July, for most countries data are available through June 2018. Let us first look at annualized inflation based on the harmonized consumer price index in June 2018.

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Overall price growth has been close to 2 percent in June but has exceeded 2 percent in a number of large economies, including France, Germany and Spain. At the surface, if the trend continues, the ECB might get under pressure to raise rates before summer 2019. Core inflation (price growth excluding energy and food), however, is still low across most economies. Looks like we'll have low nominal rates for a while.

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